Lithium – green saviour or villain?

Other countries have substantial, but unexplored, deposits including Bolivia, India, and DR Congo and potentially Afghanistan and Greenland.

In this blog I try to sort fact from fiction in the electric vehicle debate. Is there enough lithium to build batteries? Is it too expensive? Are EVs compatible with a green future?

Introduction

Lithium, or “white gold,” is a lightweight metal with a high electrochemical potential. This gives it a high energy density which is ideal for rechargeable batteries. Lots of lithium will be required for a cleaner, electric future.

Will this accelerating ‘green’ revolution stall from insufficient supply of lithium? Will extracting lithium cause irreparable ecological damage? 

Let’s sort fact from fiction.

What is lithium used for?

65% of lithium is used to manufacture lithium-ion recyclable batteries. Their main uses are in laptops, mobile phones, electric vehicles and for batteries to store electricity. Glass manufacturing and other industrial uses also use lithium.

How is lithium extracted?

Lithium is a relatively common element but is normally found in low concentrations.

The cheapest and most common method is to use natural evaporation to concentrate lithium from say 0.1% to 6% from surface or underground salt rich brines. Chemicals are added to precipitate out the lithium salts to produce lithium carbonate.

Lithium is also mined in a more conventional manner from rocks, such as spodumene, that may contain up to 5% lithium.

Sea water contains around 0.2 ppm lithium. Evaporation or fine membranes could be used to extract this lithium but at present it is too expensive to use these methods.

Batteries can be recycled to extract lithium and other minerals for reuse. This is rare at present as it is more expensive than extracting virgin lithium. However, proposed EU Regulations may force this with a proposal to recycle 70% of all batteries by 2030, and for 4% of the lithium used in new batteries to be sourced from recycled material, rising to 10% by 2035.

Can lithium be extracted without damaging the environment?

Extraction from salt rich brines is energy efficient as it uses solar evaporation to concentrate the lithium. However, this requires vast quantities of water, usually pumped from underground aquifers. This lowers the local water table. As most of this production takes place in the desert areas of the high Andes this is a major issue with some surrounding marshes and rivers drying up.  This has a direct effect on the wildlife in the lakes (eg flamingos) and can destroy safe drinking water for humans and grazing animals. The remaining concentrated minerals can leave a toxic wasteland. It would be possible to use reverse osmosis and membranes to extract the lithium (like desalination plants), but this is a more expensive option.

Mining from hard rock destroys the local environment and its biodiversity. It is energy intensive to mine, transport then process to extract the lithium.  If the ore grade is 2% then it will require at least 50 tonnes of rock to extract 1 tonne of lithium. The reality will be worse as it is necessary to remove the overburden of surrounding rocks to access the mineral deposits.

There are pilot projects (Cornwall, Arkansas, California) to reuse the deep water used by geothermal power plants, filter out the lithium, and reinject the briny water back deep underground. If using renewable energy, then this method has the potential to be less environmentally damaging. 

My conclusion is that producing lithium is not an environmentally friendly operation.  Another question is, “is it worse than drilling, extracting and processing oil?” My guess is ‘it is not worse’. Long-term, unlike burning oil, lithium can be recycled and reused.

Is there enough lithium for electric vehicles?

In 2023 the estimated global production of lithium is 146,000 tonnes: Australia 75,000; Chile 38,000; China 22,000; Argentina 7,000; USA 1,000 tonnes. Note that China then dominates the processing of lithium into useful components such as batteries, with a two-thirds global market share.

However, demand for lithium is rising fast. 14m electric vehicles were sold in 2023 taking the total on the roads to around 40 million. This may increase to 350 million by 2030. Annual lithium demand for EVs may increase from 120,000 to 900,000 tonnes by 2030.

Reserves are defined as deposits that have a reasonable potential for economic extraction. Global reserves are estimated at 28 million tonnes: Chile 9m, Australia 6m, Argentina 4m, China 3m, USA 1m.

Other countries have substantial, but unexplored, deposits including Bolivia, India, and DR Congo and potentially Afghanistan and Greenland. It is estimated that the oceans contain 230 billion tonnes!

My conclusion is that there is no global shortage of lithium. It is mined from a small number of countries, but fortunately supply chains seem to be relatively secure.

Is the price of lithium increasing?

Like all commodities the price of lithium depends on global supply and demand, plus a bit of speculation. Its price can be affected by geo-political factors, economic recession, government policies (eg EV mandates) and innovation – both in extracting lithium and innovation in the chemistry of batteries. Companies have developed sodium-ion batteries, and research is ongoing into solid oxide batteries, neither of which require lithium.

The price of lithium hovered around $100 per kg for several years. It then quadrupled during the post covid (2022-23) supply chain disruption. The price then fell equally rapidly and has returned to around $100.

My conclusion is that the price of lithium can be volatile but fundamentally there is no reason it should increase substantially over the longer term. Overall, battery costs continue to fall and are forecast to fall further.

Are EVs less environmentally damaging than conventional cars?

The answer depends on many factors, some of which are difficult to measure or even estimate. It depends on where and how lithium and all the other components for the battery are mined and processed. It depends on whether lighter, but more carbon intensive, materials like aluminium and carbon fibre are used for the body of the car as opposed to steel which is the normal material for internal combustion cars. It depends on the carbon intensity of the electricity grid where the materials are processed, and the electricity grid where the car is driven. So, the answer may be location specific. An electric car driven in Norway is clearly better than an internal combustion car, but one driven in China might not be given current electricity generation.

EV batteries contain graphite, nickel, copper, cobalt, and lithium, as well as steel, aluminium, and plastic. An EV battery may weigh 500kg, of which lithium is around 10kg.

An internet search indicated that there are “data gaps in analysing complex supply chains” and that the embodied emissions to manufacture an EV battery vary between 8 and 20 tonnes of CO2 – an unhelpfully broad range. Here, I will stick to what I have previously published. A conventional car emits 7 tonnes in its manufacture, then 2 tonnes each year to drive 10,000 miles. Over its 14-year expected lifespan the car will emit 2.5 tonnes CO2 per year. An electric car emits 14 tonnes in its manufacture, then 0.5 tonnes to drive 10,000 miles using current UK electricity carbon intensity. Over 14 years the car will emit 1.5 tonnes per year.  

To conclude, an electric vehicle driven in the UK may cut total lifetime emissions by around 40% to 1.5 tonnes per year.  However, this is still a significant component of the 12 tonnes total that an average UK citizen creates each year.

Conclusions

There is no global shortage of lithium to manufacture car batteries, and we are not dependent on unstable regimes to extract lithium. Prices do fluctuate but there is unlikely to be a long-term supply crunch.

All methods of extracting lithium are environmentally damaging, ranging from water issues in the Andes to energy use in hard rock mining and processing in Australia. Good management can reduce, but not eliminate, these impacts. 

Electric vehicles will allay our concerns about sourcing and paying for oil but replace it with a new dependence on sourcing critical raw materials to manufacture the battery.

There are greater environmental and human rights issues around extracting cobalt, dominated by production in the DR Congo, but that is for another blog. There is also a concern around the production of copper which is essential for a more electrified future.  The world’s highest-grade ores have already been mined, so future extraction will be more resource intensive.

Shifting from an internal combustion engine to an electric car is good. Overall, it cuts carbon emissions, eliminates local air pollution, and is quieter. 

However, an electric vehicle still creates a significant environmental impact over its lifespan. This reinforces my belief that we should design our cities and societies around good access to public transport, walking and cycling. This helps to create stronger communities, reduce car dependency, encourage healthier lifestyles, and avoid time wasting traffic jams.

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