Who Controls Oil Now? How Iran Is Reshaping Global Energy Markets

Following the official announcement of a ceasefire on April 8, 2026 between the United States, Israel, and Iran, speculation has intensified about the future of global energy markets and fossil fuel dependence. While financial markets reacted immediately—with oil prices falling below $100 per barrel and European gas prices dropping sharply—the deeper implications of this geopolitical shift are only beginning to emerge.

In an interview with France Info, energy expert Thierry Bros warned that the balance of power in global energy markets may have fundamentally changed. According to him, Iran’s strategic position now gives it unprecedented leverage over global oil prices.

By controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil transit daily, Iran effectively holds a volume equivalent to that historically managed by OPEC. “That means that by controlling this passage, Iran now controls oil prices and by extension, the global economy,” Bros explained.

This shift highlights a critical vulnerability: the world’s continued dependence on fossil fuel chokepoints. Even with the partial reopening of the Strait, uncertainty remains high. Iran retains the ability to restrict maritime traffic, influence supply flows, and potentially reshape global energy pricing at will. The situation is further complicated by natural gas dynamics, particularly shared reserves between Iran and Qatar, raising questions about future supply routes to Europe.

Yet beyond immediate market volatility, the expert stresses a deeper structural issue. “A drop in oil prices will solve nothing,” Bros noted, emphasizing that the current crisis should be understood as a warning. Decades after the oil shocks of the 1970s, economies remain deeply dependent on hydrocarbons—an addiction that is both economically and environmentally unsustainable.

From an environmental perspective, this renewed instability underscores the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels. Rising geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and price manipulation are not isolated events but systemic risks embedded within a fossil-based global economy. Continued reliance on oil and gas not only fuels climate change but also exposes societies to recurring cycles of crisis.

Bros advocates for accelerating electrification and investing in domestic, low-carbon energy production. Reducing oil consumption—especially in sectors where alternatives exist—could help mitigate both environmental damage and geopolitical vulnerability. At the same time, identifying sectors where oil remains difficult to replace, such as aviation, will be essential for designing realistic transition strategies.

Ultimately, the ceasefire may have paused a war, but it has revealed a deeper and more enduring conflict: the tension between a fossil-fuel-dependent world and the urgent need for a sustainable energy future.