War on Iran triggers fertilizer shock and raises global hunger fears

maritime traffic in the strait has collapsed by more than 95 percent since the outbreak of hostilities, severely constraining global supply chains.

The continuation of the war imposed by the United States and Israel against Iran is exposing a new and deeply alarming consequence: a growing global crisis in the supply of agricultural fertilizers—at the very moment farmers worldwide depend on them most.

At the center of this disruption lies the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery through which a significant share of the world’s energy and fertilizer exports pass. According to the United Nations, maritime traffic in the strait has collapsed by more than 95 percent since the outbreak of hostilities, severely constraining global supply chains.

This disruption is already driving up the cost of natural gas—an essential component in nitrogen-based fertilizers—triggering a sharp rise in fertilizer prices. The consequences are particularly severe in vulnerable regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where agricultural systems are highly dependent on imports and already operate with minimal fertilizer use.

Countries including Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Mozambique now face mounting uncertainty. For farmers, rising prices and shrinking supply mean difficult choices: reduce fertilizer use, cut planting, and accept lower yields. The result is a predictable chain reaction—declining harvests, rising food prices, and deepening food insecurity.

Warnings from international institutions are growing more urgent. Within the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, officials stress that “timing is critical,” as the current disruption coincides with the spring planting season. Failure to secure adequate fertilizer supplies now could translate directly into reduced global food production in the months ahead.

The World Food Programme has also raised alarms over the risk of worsening hunger, particularly in regions already on the brink of crisis.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned against further escalation, cautioning that the conflict risks “destabilizing global markets” and aggravating an already fragile food situation. His message underscores a growing consensus: the consequences of this war are no longer regional—they are systemic.

Yet these warnings appear to be largely ignored by the governments that initiated the conflict. The administration of Donald Trump and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu are pursuing a course that reflects not only geopolitical calculation, but also a profound lack of foresight regarding its human and environmental consequences.

This is no longer just a military conflict—it is an assault on global food systems. By disrupting access to fertilizers, the war is undermining the very foundation of agricultural production, especially in the world’s most fragile economies.

In the poorest countries, where the capacity to absorb such shocks is minimal, the result could be catastrophic: shrinking harvests, surging food prices, and the very real risk of uncontrolled hunger.

Modern wars do not end at the battlefield. They ripple through supply chains, destabilize ecosystems, and ultimately reach the most vulnerable populations—those least responsible for the conflict itself.

Unless urgent de-escalation occurs, the fertilizer crisis now unfolding could become a tipping point—transforming a geopolitical war into a global food disaster.