The True Cost of Climate Change: Why Global Warming Will Only Create "Losers"

The global economy is bracing for a shock far more violent than previously anticipated. While older models suggested that certain northern regions might benefit from rising temperatures, the work of Adrien Bilal—recently named winner of the Best Young Economist award—shatters this myth.

The global economy is bracing for a shock far more violent than previously anticipated. While older models suggested that certain northern regions might benefit from rising temperatures, the work of Adrien Bilal—recently named winner of the Best Young Economist award—shatters this myth.

Debunking the "Climate Winners" Theory

For a long time, the idea persisted that warming could boost agriculture or tourism in cold countries. Adrien Bilal formally contradicts this vision. According to his research, climate change will result in only losers. The interconnectedness of global economies and the intensity of extreme events negate any potential local benefits, plunging all nations into a structural recession.

A Six-Fold Underestimation of Financial Costs

The most alarming aspect of his work concerns the assessment of damages. According to the economist, the cost of global warming could be six times higher than previously estimated by international bodies.

• GDP Impact: His calculations suggest that a $1^\circ C$ increase in global temperature could lead to a decline in global GDP of nearly 12%.

• Revised Models: Previous models ignored the persistent nature of climate shocks on long-term productivity.

Inaction: The Heaviest Price Tag

The debate is no longer about the cost of the transition, but about the exorbitant price of the status quo. As an analysis by Le Trois points out, the fundamental question is now: "What if the true cost was that of inaction?". The investments required to decarbonize our societies, though massive, appear negligible compared to the deadweight losses of capital and growth that an unchecked climate spiral would provoke.